Tungsten Carbide Powder Prices Show Significant Upward Trend in 2025; Supply-Demand Imbalance, Policy Controls, and Geopolitical Conflicts Drive Prices to Record Highs. Comprehensive Analysis Below:

A Price Trends & Key Data Points

1. January to May: Surge to Record Highs  

- Tungsten Carbide Powder Price: Reached RMB 366/kg (RMB 366,000/tonne) by end-May 2025, exceeding 20.2% increase since year-start and hitting a historic high.

- Triggers: Upstream tungsten concentrate supply tightness (first batch mining quotas down 6.4% YoY), surging military demand (Europe’s "Programme Ciel" and fusion reactor construction), and expansion of new applications like PV tungsten wire.

2. June: Stalemate at High Levels, Short-term Correction Pressure  

- As of June 20, price slightly corrected to RMB 372/kg, still up 19.6% YoY.

- Market Dynamics: Profit-taking by traders pressured transaction levels, but resource-side price support remains firm, making deep corrections unlikely.

B. Core Driving Factor Analysis

1. Persistent Supply Contraction  

- Domestic Quota Cuts: 2025’s first tungsten mining quota only 58k tonnes, down 4k tonnes YoY (-6.4%). Environmental restrictions in Jiangxi/Hunan cut spot availability to <70%.

- Deepening Import Reliance: Q1 tungsten ore imports up 40% YoY, but new capacities (e.g., Kazakhstan’s Bakhyt Mine) delayed until Q3, unable to fill short-term gaps.

2. Structural Demand Surge  

- Military & Advanced Manufacturing: European rearmament and fusion projects add 3k tonnes/year demand (5% of consumption). New applications (robotics, eVTOL cutting tools) push cemented carbide output up 9% YoY.

- PV Tungsten Wire Breakthrough: Penetration rate hits 12%. Xiamen Tungsten’s 10-billion-meter expansion targets 85% market share, boosting profit/tonne by 30% via tech premium.

- Export Control Shock: China’s March tungsten carbide exports fell to zero (dual-use controls), worsening domestic supply pressure.

C. Geopolitics & Capital Games  

- Strategic Resource Premium: Middle East tensions amplify tungsten’s military value. EU’s plan for 100k-tonne strategic reserve triggers global scramble.

- Capital Inflow: Tungsten sector sees net capital inflow of RMB 178m (April). Futures premium rises to 8%, with trader hoarding amplifying volatility.

3. Phased Market Characteristics

1. Q1: Rise then Retreat  

- January: Pre-holiday stocking supported prices, but actual transactions were thin.

- February: Export controls caused >80% MoM drop in exports, pressuring prices.

- March: Cost-driven rebound; tungsten powder at RMB 308/kg by month-end.

2. Q2: Peak and Stalemate  

- April: Policy tightening (quota cuts) and high-end demand ignited RMB 1,000/kg daily surges. Average price broke RMB 316,000/tonne.

- May-June: Prices hovered near peaks. Downstream cemented carbide firms adopted "hand-to-mouth" purchasing, creating a "high-price-low-volume" market.

D. Future Trend Outlook

1. Short-term (H2 2025)  

- High Volatility: Tungsten carbide powder support level ~RMB 360/kg. Limited downside (tungsten concentrate cost at RMB 146k-148k/tonne).

- Risks: Trader profit-taking and overseas mine ramp-up (e.g., Bakhyt’s 8k-tonne capacity) may trigger technical corrections.

2. Long-term (Post-2026)  

- Persistent Deficit: Domestic mine depletion and quota cuts continue. PV tungsten wire penetration to reach 20% by 2026; cemented carbide import substitution accelerates. Rigid demand lifts price floor.

- Global Pricing Reshuffle: China controls 70% of reserves. Recycled tungsten tech may be a game-changer. Extreme events could push concentrate beyond RMB 200k/tonne (tungsten powder >RMB 400/kg).

Conclusion

The 2025 price surge reflects "strategic resource scarcity + high-end demand technology premium". Short-term volatility hinges on geopolitics and policy shifts. Long-term value rests on emerging sectors (PV, defense) reshaping the industrial chain.