Amanani entengo ye-tungsten Carbide powder akhombisa ukuthambekela okuphakeme kakhulu ku-2025; Ukungalingani okufunwa kwezidingo, izilawuli zenqubomgomo, kanye nezingxabano ze-geopolitical drive drive ukurekhoda phezulu. Ukuhlaziywa okuphelele ngezansi:

Amanani entengo namaphoyinti wedatha ebalulekile

1. Januwari kuya kuMeyi: Surge ukurekhoda okuphezulu  

- I-Tungsten Carbide Powder Intengo: Ifinyelelwe i-RMB 366 / kg (RMB 366,000 / Tonne) ngokuphela-Meyi 2025, ukwengeza okuphezulu kuka-20.2% kusukela ngonyaka ophakeme kanye nokushaya umlando ophakeme.

- I-Trigger: U-Upstream Tungsten Gxilisa ukuqina kokuqina

2. NgoJuni: Stalemate emazingeni aphezulu, ingcindezi yokulungiswa kwesikhashana  

- Kusukela ngoJuni 20, intengo elungiswe kancane ku-RMB 372 / kg, isakhuphuka ngo-19.6%.

- Ama-Dynamics wemakethe: Ukuthatha inzuzo ngabathengisi abacindezele amazinga okwenziwa, kepha ukusekelwa kwentengo kwezinsizakusebenza kuhlala kuqinile, okwenza izilungiso ezijulile zingathandeki.

B. Core ukushayela izici zokuhlaziywa

1. Ukuphindisela okuphikelelayo  

- Ukuncishiswa kwesilinganiso sasekhaya Imikhawulo yezemvelo eJiangxi / Hunan Cut Spot Spot ukutholakala ku-

- Ukujulisa ukungenisa Ukuthembela: Q1 tungsten ore ezweni le-40%, kepha amakhono amasha (isb.

2  

- Ezokukhiqiza ezempi nezentuthukile: Amaphrojekthi we-Europe Reasermament kanye nama-Fusion angeza ama-3K Tonnenes / Unyaka Ukufunwa (5% wokusetshenziswa). Izicelo ezintsha (ama-robotic, amathuluzi okusika ama-evtol) push carbide ovele ukhipha u-9% yoy.

- I-PV Tungsten Wire Breakthrough: Izinga lokungena lishaya i-12%. Ukwanda kwemitha engu-Xiamen Tungsten's 100

- Ukuthunyelwa kwamatheyiphule okuthekelisana: Ukuthunyelwa kwama-Carbide e-China tungsten Carbide kwawe zero (izilawuli ezisetshenziswayo ezimbaxambili), kukhulisa ukucindezela kwasekhaya.

C. Geopolitics & Capital Games  

- Amasu we-Premium we-Strategic: Izingxabano ze-Middle East zikhulisa inani lezempi likaTungsten. Uhlelo lwe-EU lwe-100k-toner desertegic Reserve lubangela ukuskena komhlaba wonke.

- Inlovlow capital: Umkhakha weTungsten ubona inyoni enkulu ye-RMB 178M (Ephreli). I-Premium yesikhathi esizayo ikhuphuka ibe ngu-8%, ngokuqamba ama-hoarding anda ukuguquguquka.

I-3. Izici zemakethe ezihlanganisiwe

1. Q1: Rise then Retreat  

- Januwari: Amanani asekelwayo amaholide asekelwayo, kepha ukuthengiselana kwangempela kwaba mncane.

- NgoFebhuwari: Izilawuli zokuthumela ngaphandle ezibangelwa> 80% umama wehla kwezinye izithunyelwa ngaphandle, amanani entengo.

80% umama wehla kwezinye izithunyelwa ngaphandle, amanani entengo.

2. Q2: Peak and Stalemate  

- Mashi: inkokhelo eqhutshwa izindleko; I-tungsten powder ku-RMB 308 / kg ngenyanga.

- Ephreli: Ukuqiniseka kwenqubomgomo (ukusika kwe-quota) kanye nesidingo esiphakeme esibekiwe i-RMB 1,000 / kg ukugaya kwansuku zonke. Intengo ephakathi ephuke i-RMB 316,000 / Tonne.

- Meyi-Juni: Amanani anyuswe eduze kweziqongo. Amafemu we-Carbide we-Downtstream Carkrem amukelwe "Ukuthenga kwesandla", ukudala imakethe "enezinto eziphakeme kakhulu".

D. Ukubukwa kwesikhathi esizayo

1. Isikhashana se-Short-Isikhathi (H2 2025)  

- Ukuguquguquka okuphezulu: I-Tungsten Carbide Powder Support Level ~ RMB 360 / kg. I-Limited Limited Ephansi (Tungsten gxila izindleko ku-RMB 146k-148k / Tonne).

- Ubungozi: Ukuthathwa kwenzuzo yokuthatha inzuzo kanye ne-phesheya kwemayini yemayini (e.g., iBakhyt's 8k-tonne) kungadala ukulungiswa kwezobuchwepheshe.

2. Isikhathi eside (i-post-2026)  

- Ukuphelelwa okuphikelelayo: Ukuncishiswa kwemayini yasekhaya kanye nokusikeka kwe-quota kuyaqhubeka. Ukungena ngentambo ye-PV Tungsten ukufinyelela ku-20% ngo-2026; Ukufakwa esikhundleni kweCarbide Tarbide ukungenisa kuyashesha. Isifutho esiqinile se-Livid Floor.

- Intengo yomhlaba wonke i-reshiffle: I-China ilawula ama-70% ezindawo. I-Recycled Tungsten Tech ingaba ngumguquki womdlalo. Izehlakalo ezedlulele zingacindezela ukugxilisa ngaphezulu kwe-RMB 200K / Tonne (Tungsten Powder> RMB 400 / kg).

RMB 400 / kg).